Previous Post on Prop 1 - Macromemetic Index - Math of Elections
Introduction
I wanted to take a closer look at how the votes of the defeated parties get rolled up into the winning parties' totals.
How Ballots Look
Let's say we have the Republican, Democrat, Farmer's, and Green parties running after having made it through the primaries as the top three parties. A ballot has a first pick, a second, a third, and a fourth choice, so a shorthand for a ballot could look like RDFG, where Republican is first choice, then Democrats, then Farmers, then Green. Every ballot looks like this.
There are six kinds of ballots where the Republicans are the first pick: RDFG, RDGF, RFDG, RFGD, RGDF, and RGFD.
How a Vote Might Look
There are 24 different kinds of ways to cast a ballot. Here's a sample vote below. I've marked in Blue and Red the ballots that go to the winning party (Republicans) and the runner-up party (Democrats) when the other two parties are taken out.
Rep | RDFG 1% | RDGF 1% | RFDG 18% | RFGD 12% | RGDF 3% | RGFD 5% |
Total 40% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dem | DRFG 5% | DRGF 5% | DFRG 2% | DFGR 3% | DGRF 10% | DGFR 5% |
Total 30% |
Farm | FRDG 5% | FRGD 8% | FDRG 1% | FDGR 1% | FGRD 3% | FGDR 2% |
Total 20% |
Green |
GRDF 1% | GRFD 0% | GDRF 3% | GDFR 3% | GFRD 1% | GFDR 2% |
Total 10% |
Coming Back from a Bad First Choice Vote
Rep | RDFG 1% | RDGF 1% | RFDG 18% | RFGD 12% | RGDF 3% | RGFD 5% |
Total 40% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dem | DRFG 5% | DRGF 5% | DFRG 2% | DFGR 3% | DGRF 10% | DGFR 5% |
Total 30% |
Farm | FRDG 4% | FRGD 3% | FDRG 5% | FDGR 2% | FGRD 2% | FGDR 4% |
Total 20% |
Green | GRDF 0% | GRFD 0% | GDRF 3% | GDFR 4% | GFRD 0% | GFDR 3% |
Total 10% |
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