The trend for deaths in the USA overall is going in the right direction, and the doubling time for deaths is currently at 200 days, or about six months. That translates into half a million Americans dead by next March, as of how the numbers look right now.
However, the doubling time for deaths went from about three months in August to six months now, so we may see a nine-month doubling time by Christmas. But it's been erratic.
Here it looks like by Christmas about 350,000 Americans will be dead by Christmas, but the trend seems to be downward at the moment, but that trend may change with more "indoor life" and Thanksgiving and Christmas and travel and family gatherings. One could be forgiven for thinking that things may get worse.