Covid-19 New Cases and Deaths per Day

Here's a plot of the number of new cases and deaths (times ten) per day since the beginning.

You can see how things came kind of "under control" between March 22 and April 5 (March 25 is when Idaho Governor Little issued his lockdown order), so presumably that is the effect of that. The number of new cases per day leveled out at thirty thousand, and the number of deaths sort of paused at two thousand, then shot up to three thousand and then sort of bounced around in-between.

They both seem to have dropped to twenty thousand and fifteen hundred. We'll see if that holds or improves.

This gives a picture that complements the log-log plot. Presumably the sharp upward trend in both curves corresponds to the exponential growth phase, i.e., every day we have more cases, in fact, every day the number of deaths and cases is more than it was the day before...every day. This curve may be telling us that lots of people are getting sick, and dying, every day, maybe the same large number, but it's not increasing. It may still overwhelm our hospitals, if fewer are getting well (or dying) than keep coming in every day.

No comments:

Post a Comment