COVID-19 Projections out to Election Day


I've just started projecting the US cases out to Election day, i.e., two months from now. We can see here how bad things were at the end of July. At that point we were looking at 15 million cases by November, and now it's dropped to 10 million. Maybe it will decrease more as we go forward, but probably not as the growth numbers are as good as they've been so far.

Meanwhile, again bad, November deaths were pointed to 300 thousand as of end July, and now they're just over 260 thousand.

So these are the number of dead Americans we can expect to see by Election Day, November 3, if things stay roughly as they are now. However, we still need to wait a couple of weeks or so to see the effects, if any, of all these students going back to school right around this time. 

I will keep monitoring, and by the way I'm computing a five-day rolling average for everything to keep things bouncing around too much, which also tends to smooth out and blunt certain sudden changes.

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