Here's what things looked like at the lockdown. The yellow line is a 30-day projection of what things would've looked like if they hadn't done the lockdown (Idaho was right in time). There would've been ten million case by early April.
After that, the growth rate dropped from 25% to more like 2-4%.
NOTE: 25% means the number of illnesses DOUBLES every 3 days. 1% means it doubles every couple of months. 2-4% means every two weeks to one month. Unfortunately, Texas and Idaho have dropped back down to the three week area, i.e., every three weeks twice as many Texans and Idahoans get sick and/or die.
The other two lines are the projections based on a continued 25% growth rate. The lockdown happened barely in time. Earlier would've been better, of course.
Notice how the orange line (25% one month ahead) follows the yellow line and then takes off to the moon. The green line (25% growth one week out) follows the red line, and then it peels off for the sky, while the lockdown drags the red line (one week projection at current growth rate) back down.
You could say we would've gotten to where we are now by mid-April, and our 2 million hospitals would've been completely overwhelmed.
I can do the projection of deaths if anybody wants (post a comment on this page).