COVID-19 Texas Takes a Turn for the Worse


Twenty thousand Texans will be dead by Election Day at the rate we're going. Thirty by New Year.

The Election Day (green) line dropped precipitously coming out of the "Memorial Day Bump", but now it's heading back up. The End-of-Year line is rising even more sharply.

Memorial Day Bump

In both these graphs, you can see this point where the blue line (number of actual real deaths and cases) takes a strong turn up. It's not exponential, per se, but it looks like people are getting sick and dying two to three times faster than before Memorial Day. Note that the deaths trail the cases by a couple of weeks, then they shoot up as well.

The exact same thing appears on the charts for Idaho, same timeframe.

The chart for the US cases does this, but softer, and I don't really see it in the US deaths data (I'll upload these graphs later -- make sure to comment if you're keen to see them). That suggests that not all States underwent the shift in behavior which seems to have made the virus deadlier.

Here are the cases, similarly bad. If things get any worse, we'll have two and a half million Covid-19 cases in Texas by year's end. It looks like we're guaranteed a million cases by Election Day, if not well before then, if something doesn't change drastically, and soon.

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