One good thing about data and predicting is that you can tell if things are getting better or worse. I have three graphs going now. This new one suggests that thing are slowing down.
The red line is giving the cases we have as of the given date, what a 22% growth rate would give us by April 8 Around March 26, things looked pretty bad since given the cases we had then, a 22% growth rate (the average so far) would land us well over a million cases. The numbers coming out nowadays, at 22% growth, point to a less than a million number of cases.
This suggests that the growth rate is going down.
The average growth rate over the whole pandemic is still 22%, but the median value of the past week or so is more like 16%
Now if the growth rate going forward were only 16%, we would stay between half a million and three quarters by April 8th (yellow line).
So,
1. the daily number of cases growing at 22% no longer supports a million cases by April 8
2. The most recent growth rates look more like 16%, not 22% (the average)
3. 16% growth estimated out to April 8 looks like less than three quarter million cases
4. This is well under the million cases which could be predicted based on the March 25 - 28 situation
The Log-Log plot of new cases versus total cases is too hard to read at this point -- it has not begun a substantive drop, however.
We hope to see both lines stop and drop straight down, which they clearly are not doing. This means it's still in exponential growth, effectively. And 16% is still really bad.
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