CoVID-19 Growth Rates and Doubling Times

Using the following formula, and given that the growth as of the past couple of days of the CoVID-19 pandemic is about 2% - 3%, we should see a doubling time of 0.7 / 0.03 = 35 days to 0.7 / 0.02 = 23 days.

See the comic 'zine Growth Experience.

Here we see that the growth rate of the epidemic in terms of cases and deaths is falling to around 2% to 3%. Both have been in the 4% - 6% range over the past couple of weeks.

For these values, we would expect doubling times of:
4%: 17.5 days
5%: 14 days (two weeks!)
6%: 11.7 days (two working weeks and a weekend)

In other words, a week or more faster, or even half the time as with a 2% or 3% growth rate, so we need to see those values stay low. We'll see if these "reopening" and "anti-shutdown protests" have a negative impact.

Perhaps I should make a chart of doubling times based on growth rates. Post a comment if you'd like to see that!

No comments:

Post a Comment